Artificial intelligence has achieved a renown break through during the recent five years. It has overcome the restriction of technology of software and hardware. This technology has infiltrated into all kinds of fields (Automotive, Financial services, Retail, Entertainment, Health Care, Travel). (2) It received a high degree of attention for its intelligence in the last few years. For example, OpenAI beat Dendi in Dota2 world tournament. Full extent of Dota2’s possibilities are virtually incomprehensible. It is the first time that artificial intelligence has been able to beat pros in competitive e-sports. (3) Moreover, the AI can achieve complex action like human-being. For instance, the back-flipping robot from Boston Dynamic implies the possibility of works robots can do. (4) Artificial intelligence economy is emerging in this ten years. The external investment growth on this field has tripled since 2013, but the automation will replace 60% of the occupations over 30%. (5)
Artificial intelligence is a non-biological intelligence which are able to achieve complex tasks. (1) Labor market refers to the supply and demand for the market. Overall, the research will analysis this question from the capability of artificial intelligence, economic influence, productivity efficiency and equality these four aspects. Furthermore, the time interval for the research is for next 20 years and the object of research will be from areas like US, Latin America, Singapore, Ohio, Asia etc.
In this research, two perspectives about the influence of AI on the labor market in the next twenty years will be introduced. For some estimations, the artificial intelligence can actually benefit the labor market by changing the structure of labors. However, it can also produce the negative externalities to widen the gap between the rich and poor and cause a high level of unemployment.
Perspective 1: The development of artificial intelligence will benefit the labor market in the next 20 years.
Some people believes that the development of artificial intelligence will benefit the labor market in different fields. The first reason is that AI is more powerful than humankind in many aspects. It will be more productive and effective to specific types of jobs than humans.
Alpha go can be the representative of artificial intelligence. It is a computer program base on the reinforcement learning of go invented by Google DeepMind. Summer, 2017, Alpha go won 4 out of 5 games with level 9 go master Lee Sedol. Moreover, it achieved 59 consecutive wins to the go professionals at Tygem server. (6) After one year, upgraded alpha zero is invented. It achieves a high level of playing chess by teaching itself. Furthermore, it is also suitable for other board game with an extremely high level. These two examples proved that the AI has already beat human being at logic gaming and learning itself without directional programming. (7)
Furthermore, the acritical intelligence can boost up the productivity and minimize the maintenance and repairs. It effects the retail, electric utilities, manufacturing, health care and education. For example, AI will be able to answer 40% of the student’s repeated questions. (8) (MGI report)
Additionally, the intervention of AI in streamline can help to reduce 80% of the direct accident. AI will keep a high-level precision for a week, even a month, because machines will not feel tired at all. However, human beings must rest for every day, and the uncertainty of labor intensive working will be higher than the automations. (9) Therefore, the AI have already owned the powerful ability and it can boost up the efficiency of production dramatically.
For the evidences above, the news of Alpha Go is written by Will Knight who is an expert from MIT review on machine intelligence. The article written by him add the reliability of the evidence.
The second reason is that the introduction of artificial intelligence is a process of natural selecting of types of Jobs. It will result to create more high-level jobs and most of the traditional repeated labor will be replaced which is an alternative way to encourage people to be educated.
Overall the rate of unemployment is increasing these years, because of the invention of machines in the assembly line. The low-skilled assemble worker will be fully replace by machines. (10) As the time pass, the labor market will demand more middle-skilled workers than the low-skilled workers which will cause the digital and learning transformation. For example, the sale man in the supermarket will be replaced. E-payment and auto-scanner will help the consumers to settle accounts. In a long term, it will change the structure of labor market and provide better living standard. (11)
In the future, the jobs created by artificial intelligence can be divided into 3 types which represents the new labor market structure. They are trainers, explainers and sustainers. The trainers will mainly build algorithms for machines to process which makes the machines have intelligence to act. The explainers will bridge the gap between technologists and business leaders. Moreover, the sustainers are the people who will evaluate and examine the machines regularly to check whether AI are working within the estimation, and they have to solve the breakdown of AI. (12)
As a result, high-educated workers will be highly demanded by the companies, and the overall structure of the labor market will change. The authors of report of Artificial Intelligence and Life in 2030 is from Stanford University. They are all the experts in Artificial intelligence which makes the evidence more authoritative.
The third reason is that the Artificial Intelligence will create more jobs than it destroys which improves living standard of human-beings.
Researchers at Capgemini surveyed 1,000 organizations which have deployed AI-based systems and found that four out of five of them have created more jobs. 3 in 4 organizations implementing AI increase sales of new products and services by more than 10%. 78% of organizations implementing AI increase operational efficiency by more than 10%. 75% of organizations using AI enhance customer satisfaction by more than 10%. 79% of organizations implementing AI generate new insights and better analysis. (13) (14)
Moreover, Songergaard stated that by 2020 AI will automate 1.8 million people out of work, but it will create 2.3 million jobs. So, AI will drive a net gain of 500,000 new jobs. It can help to seek the hidden talent in human being and enhance workers. This action will reduce the unemployment trade and offers more job opportunity to the people. With the AI, people will have better life styles, because most of the selecting process will decided by AI which will have a more reliable solution. (15)
As a result, more work place will be open up to the public and the implementation of AI will improve the living standard by making optimized decisions for peoples or firms. The research made by Capgemini university includes a lot of statistics which covers lots of firms and company. This statistics strength the reliability of the content.
On the other hand, the development of artificial intelligence may create a negative effect to the labor market in the next 20 years.
The first reason is that large amount of Jobs has been replaced already, and the number of job replacement overwhelms those of newly created jobs.
According the labor market report from Singapore, the unemployment rate in manufacturing is increasing in the last three years. The employment change in manufacturing from 2014 to 2016 is -4.4, -22.1, -15.5 respectively. The trend of development of artificial intelligence is related to the unemployment. According to the report of MGI, the AI usage of companies are growing in a steadily rate. It will replace over 60% of jobs about 30%. Therefore, the replacement of occupation will cause the labor market to have a relative high unemployment rate. (16) (17)
Moreover, the global installations of robots are estimated to increase at least by 18%, to about 346,800 units in 2017. Robot supplies in the Americas will increase by 16%, in Asia by 21%, and in Europe by 8%. (executive robotics summary) Especially, in China, the industrial robots at around 68,600 units sold, the statistics for 2015 were 20 percent above the previous year’s figures, thereby exceeding the volume of sales for all European markets combined (50,100 units). (18) These figures show that the invasion of artificial intelligence into the labor market is continuously expanding these years. This phenomenon causes the loss of job worldwide. Take the steel industry as an example. It lost 400,000 people, 75 percent of its work force between 1962 and 2005, according to a study published in the American Economic Review last year. (19)
The second reason is that the inequality between the rich and poor will be larger. The introduction of UBI experiment failed in Finland. It is extremely hard to shorten he gap between the wealth and the poor.
According to some estimates, for developing countries as a group, the “share of occupations that could experience significant automation is actually higher in developing countries than in more advanced ones, where many of these jobs have already disappeared”, and this concerns about two thirds of all jobs. This sentence indicates that the developing country will face a large percentage of unemployment in the future. The number of industrial workers is increasing from 2013 to 2015 which will heavy the burden of employment of developing countries. (20)
Moreover, according to the World Employment and Social Outlook, the developing countries have a higher unemployment than the developed countries. The regions like Latin America and the Caribbean will have a relative high rate of extreme and moderate working than other regions. It is harder for countries in those regions to develop. Developed countries will be very easy to take the occupation transformation caused by AI, because they have enough high-skilled worker and good social welfare. However, the Latin America countries is lack of high-skilled labor, most of the low skilled labor in those countries will lose jobs. It will also cause a heavier burden to the countries government to bear. (21)
The government of Finland has witness the unemployment problem caused by implementation of AI. They set a place called UBI which is named as Universal Basic Income. The invention of UBI is in order to shorten the gap between the rich and poor through handing out unconditional cash to all citizens. However, it may actually increase the poverty rather than alleviate the poor which leads to the failure of UBI, because it is still an idea theory of poverty solution for the world. Experiment in one country can’t carry on properly. (22)
As a result, the assumption of UBI experiment will not solve the root of the problem. The gap between rich and poor will be widening. UNCTAD report about robots and industrialization in developing countries and the report of World Employment and Social Outlook have strong authoritative background which provides reliable evidence to support the argument.